GAO-12-578T, Mortgage Financing: FHA and Ginnie Mae Face Risk-Management Challenges, March 29, 2012 (gao.gov)
What GAO FoundFor the third consecutive year, the Department of Housing and
Urban Development’s (HUD) Federal Housing Administration (FHA) reported that
the capital ratio for the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund–the ratio of the
fund’s economic value to insurance obligations–has not met the 2 percent
statutory minimum. FHA cites declines in the fund’s economic value due to
higher-than-expected defaults, claims, and losses. At the same time, the other
component of the ratio, insurance obligations, grew rapidly. The fund’s
condition also worsened from a budgetary perspective, with balances in the
fund’s capital reserve account reaching new lows. If the account were
depleted, FHA would require more funds to help cover costs on insurance issued
to date. FHA has indicated that it will narrowly avoid this scenario in fiscal
year 2012. FHA enhanced methods for assessing the fund’s financial condition
but has not fully addressed GAO’s 2010 recommendation for improving the
reliability of its estimates. It relies on a single economic forecast, which
does not fully account for variability in future house prices and interest
rates. The approach GAO recommended would simulate numerous economic paths for
house prices and interest rates would improve the reliability of its capital
ratio estimates.FHA …
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